ANDOVER is unlikely be classed as a coronavirus ‘hotspot’ when the second national lockdown ends, according to a model by university scientists.
A map by Imperial College London says it is 63 per cent likely that the Test Valley council area will have 100 cases per 100,000 people by December 6, four days after lockdown is due to end.
The university’s Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis classes areas with such a rate as a Covid-19 ‘hotspot’.
The Imperial College model is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.
The Test Valley Council area has a current rolling rate of 106.2 cases per 100,000 people, according to the latest Government data, which is below the national average.
However, the Government coronavirus dashboard shows Hampshire as a whole has already hit the ‘hotspot’ figure, with a rolling rate of 147.2per 100,000 in the week up to November 17.
The Imperial modelling suggests the national lockdown is unlikely to have brought the county’s rolling rate below 100 by early December.
The Government will be looking at the rolling rate, number of cases and the number of people in hospital with the virus, as it decides what restrictions will be in place over the Christmas period.
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